Covid-19 vaccinations outcomes
Focus on countries with the highest % of vaccinations (data source: covid.ourworldindata.org)
Currently, here are the countries with the highest figures for % of administered doses of covid-19 vaccine(s):
Let do 3 things:
represent graphically the curves of vaccinations, PCR, PCR+, hospitalizations and deaths for these countries where data is available for all variables
represent graphically scatter and linear fit plots for %PCR+ and deaths with/from covid-19 against % of fully vaccinated people
represent graphically the coefficients from regressions of %PCR and deaths with/from covid-19 against % of fully vaccinated people
Curves of vaccinations, PCR, PCR+, hospitalizations and deaths
Due to data availability, UAE & NLD are not displayed; due to data availability, some curves cannot be displayed
PCR up, PCR+ up, deaths down
PCR+ chaotic but relatively stable, deaths up !
PCR+ flat, PCR data stops in June (?), hospitalizations and deaths flat
PCR up, PCR+ not yet (?), deaths up !
PCR & PCR+ down, deaths down
PCR & PCR+ in tango, currently down; deaths up !
PCR & PCR+ in tango up, hospitalizations and deaths flat
PCR up, PCR+ down (interesting…), deaths down but picking up (?)
PCR & PCR+ tango down, hospitalizations & deaths down
PCR+ down, no PCR data, deaths data difficult to interpret…
PCR & PCR+ in tango up, hospitalizations & deaths down
Overall, it’s all over the place… Very different countries, high vaccinations %, very different outcomes…
Scatter and linear fit plots for %PCR+ and deaths with/from covid-19 against % of fully vaccinated people
Due to data availability, 2 countries are dropped from this analysis
Timspan from 1/1/2021 until latest available data is used
As above, all variables are 7 days moving averages; fully vaccinated people % is lagged by 14 days
%PCR+ is used to take into account the PCR intensity and the number of PCR+ in one metric
Weekly dummies are included in the regressions
Negative relationship between vaccinations and %PCR+ and deaths in Malta
Flat link between vaccinations and %PCR+ and a positive link between vaccinations and deaths in Chile
Negative link between vaccinations, %PCR+ and deaths in Uruguay
Positive link between vaccinations, %PCR+ and deaths in Mongolia
Flat link between vaccinations & %PCR+ and fitted negative one (but one can observe a flat one as well from dots) between vaccinations & deaths in UK
(timid) Negative link between vaccinations, %PCR+ and deaths in Qatar
Linear fits tend to show a negative link between vaccinations, %PCR+ & deaths in Canada, but looking at the dots one can see a rather flat link
Flat link between vaccinations, %PCR+ and deaths in Singapore
Flat link between vaccinations & %PCR+ in Denmark, also between vaccinations & deaths although linear fit show a negative line
Overall, things are again all over the place, confirming the initial graphical representations with various curves
Coefficients from regressions of %PCR and deaths with/from covid-19 against % of fully vaccinated people
Coefficients from robust regressions are show graphically below
All variables are 7 days moving averages; fully vaccinated people / 100 is lagged by 14 days
How to read this ? For instance, in the case of Malta (MLT iso code): the coefficient is close to 0 in both cases (w/r to %PCR+ or deaths) - coefficients values are on the Y axe - while, according to p-values, the coefficient for %PCR+ is significant while for deaths it is not (the closer the p-value is to 0, the more significant is the coefficient).
Overall, most of the coefficients are very small when they are significant.
Over the period under investigation, for instance in Qatar, an average increase in the 7 days moving average of fully vaccinated people of 1 point is associated with a reduction in the 7 days moving average of %PCR+ of less than 0.004, 14 days later.
Similarly, for instance in Urugay, an average increase in the 7 days moving average of fully vaccinated people of 1 point is assocaited with a reduction in the 7 days moving average of deaths (per million) of slightly more than 0.2, 14 days later.
Overall, the links between vaccinations and %PCR+ or deaths are statistically rather weak in those countries and over this time span.